In the financial sector, the terms “bear season” and “bull season” are commonly used to describe the trends in asset prices. A bear season indicates a period where prices are generally falling, reflecting a pessimistic or negative outlook among investors. Conversely, a bull season signifies a time when prices are on the rise, indicating a more optimistic or positive market sentiment.
Cryptocurrency markets are particularly known for their high volatility and significant price fluctuations. As such, when a new bull season begins in the cryptocurrency sphere, it often leads to a sharp increase in the prices of almost all cryptocurrencies in the market. This can result in substantial gains for investors who hold these digital assets. However, given the inherent volatility, these markets also pose considerable risks.
What is a bull season when cryptocurrencies increase hundreds of times?
The term “bull” in financial markets refers to a period of strong price increases. Compared to traditional markets, the cryptocurrency market is smaller and more prone to significant price fluctuations.
This implies that during a new cryptocurrency bull run, prices of cryptocurrencies can surge by 1% or more within a timeframe as short as a few hours or as long as 2 to 40 days.
However, the cryptocurrency market is often regarded as being in its infancy, akin to a baby taking its first steps. Various events can trigger the start and end of cryptocurrency bull runs, making these markets particularly dynamic and unpredictable.
What is Bitcoin halving, one of the biggest causes of cryptocurrency bull seasons?
One of the most significant occurrences in the world of Bitcoin and blockchain technology is the Bitcoin halving event, which transpires every four years. This event was programmed into Bitcoin’s source code by its creator, Satoshi Nakamoto.
The rationale behind Satoshi’s inclusion of this code is straightforward: Bitcoin halving reduces the rate at which new Bitcoins are created, effectively lowering Bitcoin’s inflation rate. This mechanism is designed to promote an increase in Bitcoin’s price.
The final Bitcoin is projected to be mined in the year 2140. After this point, no new Bitcoins will be introduced to the market.
During a Bitcoin halving event, the rewards for mining are cut by 50%. The most recent halving occurred in 2020, reducing the mining reward to 6.25 Bitcoins. Following this event, Bitcoin’s price surged to an all-time high of $69,000 in 2021.
Predictions on when the big crypto surge that is expected to make many people rich could happen:
No one knows exactly what will start the next cryptocurrency bull. While the Bitcoin halving event is at the top of everyone’s predictions, another event could pull the trigger.
Will the Bitcoin halving event, which previously triggered sharp rises, start the new bull?
The next Bitcoin halving event is anticipated to occur in mid-2024. During this event, Bitcoin mining rewards will be reduced to 3.125 Bitcoins.
Historically, the price of Bitcoin has demonstrated a tendency to rise in a four-year cycle surrounding these halving events. These cycles typically involve a sharp decline in prices, a period of stabilization, followed by a significant increase in price shortly before the halving event occurs.
The price of Bitcoin has generally risen to record highs 1 year after the halving event.
It’s important to note that past trends do not guarantee that Bitcoin’s price will rise in the future. However, currently, Bitcoin’s price is approaching $69,000, mirroring the pattern observed during its most recent bull season rally when it reached an all-time high (ATH).
Echoing this sentiment, Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao remarked a few months ago, “The year after the Bitcoin halving is usually a bull year.” This statement reflects an optimistic outlook, leveraging the influence of the halving event in predicting future market trends.
The claim that the new bull could start with even grocery stores accepting cryptocurrency payments:
A potential catalyst for the next cryptocurrency bull run could be the widespread adoption of cryptocurrency payments. Imagine if one day, grocery stores, supermarket chains, hotels, and other businesses announce their acceptance of cryptocurrency payments – such a move could mark the beginning of a new bull season.
In this scenario, almost everyone might find themselves needing to purchase cryptocurrencies. However, this kind of development currently seems somewhat speculative. It might take another 10-12 years for cryptocurrency payments to become a significant trigger for the next bull season. Who knows?
Could the bull start with laws such as taxes coming to the cryptocurrency markets?
Currently, governments worldwide have yet to fully regulate cryptocurrency markets. The enactment of laws concerning cryptocurrencies essentially reflects a country’s recognition of these digital assets as legitimate.
In this context, two outcomes are foreseeable. A positive legal framework could lead to a significant surge in cryptocurrency values. On the other hand, negative regulations or stringent taxation policies could cause prices to fall or stabilize.
Recently, the European Union has made substantial progress in its cryptocurrency legislation, known as the Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) regulation. Simultaneously, the United States is in a phase of conducting in-depth research into cryptocurrencies.
One of the strongest claims: What is Bitcoin ETF approval?
ETF, which stands for Exchange-Traded Fund, is a significant concept in the context of Bitcoin. The introduction of a Bitcoin ETF would enable investors of all types to buy and sell Bitcoin more easily, without facing major risks like cryptocurrency exchange crashes.
If the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approves a Bitcoin ETF, an event anticipated by 2024 at the latest, Bitcoin could suddenly become a highly sought-after asset.
The recent uptick in Bitcoin’s price, coupled with the approaching Bitcoin halving event, suggests that a new cryptocurrency bull run might emerge in 2024. Other factors, such as the legalization of cryptocurrencies, their global adoption, and the shift of institutional companies towards cryptocurrency investments, could also contribute to triggering a new cryptocurrency bull run. However, the most pivotal event to watch at this moment is the upcoming Bitcoin halving.
This content cannot be considered as investment advice.